Up to 12 inches of rain could fall off the coast of South Florida. What most models do agree on is rain and lots of it. At Wunderground, Bob Henson writes that the “overall pattern is the most favorable I’ve seen in a long time for a potential Florida landfall.” The Capital Weather Gang’s Brian McNoldy also also notes that South Florida landfall is the most likely possibility as does Eric Holthaus at Slate. Some models show Erika could spin up into a major hurricane while others have it staying more low key as a tropical storm or wave.Īll that said, there are some warning signs that Erika’s track could bring it to South Florida in some form. There’s still not widespread agreement among the models used to forecast tropical storms on Erika’s strength either. Today: GFS 12z forecast for TS #Erika slides up east coast of Florida-still 4-5 days away. The uncertainty is a 240-mile wide circle so even though there’s a dot on South Florida, it’s not a guaranteed bullseye. Nailing where landfall happens is not a slam dunk. Wilma was also the last major hurricane - Category 3 or greater - to the hit U.S. The National Hurricane Center shows Erika reaching Category 1 hurricane status on Monday morning with a forecast track that could make it the first hurricane to hit Florida’s shores since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. That could tear the storm apart.īut if it can make it through, there’s less shear and warm waters on the other side that could help the storm strengthen. Also like Danny, Erika faces a fair amount of wind shear in the eastern Caribbean on Thursday and Friday (thanks, El Niño). What happens after the Bahamas is an area of intense speculation. Hurricane Drought ‘A Matter of Luck’ Hurricane Danny Takes Aim at Drought-Parched Caribbean Katrina: Lasting Climate Lessons for a Sinking City The storm should make it ways through the Bahamas over the weekend. Much like it’s predecessor Danny - the first hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season - Erika is forecast to pass through the northeastern Caribbean. Folks need to remember we are still 4 to 5 days away in the forecast, and a lot could change in that time.Of course, Monday is a long way away in hurricane forecast time (which is somewhat similar to dog years) and a lot of uncertainty sits between Erika and ending Florida’s historic hurricane drought in terms of whether the storm makes landfall and how strong it is.Īs it stands now, Erika is a tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 mph. The NHC says that if Erika survives the next few days, then the steering pattern and environment will become more conducive to her strengthening and it then becomes a worrisome problem for the Bahamas and Florida. next week as something that could change Erika’s track. But they also point to Erika’s track over land, along with coming up against an upper-level steering flow near the eastern U.S. People have also been advised to check on their emergency disaster supply kits, making sure they are fully stocked, and to have an evacuation plan on hand.įorecasters warn that Erika may hit the same wind-shear and dry air that caused the breaking up of Hurricane Danny last week. Koon.įlorida’s Division of Emergency management issued an email notice to Florida residents and visitors, advising people to stay alert to local conditions, watching the news for further instructions. “We are preparing the protective and responsive measures we will need if the storm continues to develop out of an abundance of caution,” said Director Bryan W.

Florida’s State Emergency Operations Center was partially activated today as officials start monitoring the storm, reports the NY Post. By Friday, Erika, the fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, should reach the Dominican Republic, and as the storm continues on its predicted track, reach Florida as a hurricane by early Monday.

Erika hurricane track